Chataignier, LA Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated each afternoon through Thursday, due to continuing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 30-60%.

- Rain chances return to the forecast late tonight into Saturday and again on Tuesday.

Discussion

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Southeasterly winds at the surface have allowed for our lower levels of the atmosphere to moisten up a bit, with this trend continuing. Aloft, an upper level wave is helping transport moisture associated with the remnants of a Pacific tropical system, coinciding with another surge of moisture from the Gulf. These features will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly on tomorrow, although it will not be out of the realm of possibility to see widely isolated showers later this afternoon and evening. Forecast PWATs will increase to 1.70 to 2.05 inches, above the 90th percentile for this time of year. While rain chances have remained relatively the same, forecast rainfall amounts continue to trend downward, contributing to uncertainty in QPF. Deterministic 24 hour rainfall totals for Saturday range from around trace amounts to just over a quarter inch. Despite the downward trend in forecast amounts, locally heavy rainfall will remain possible, prompting WPC to introduce a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall. Given that some areas are currently experiencing exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought, rainfall could assist in helping prevent drought categories from worsening across other areas outside of the exceptional.

Rain chances will be increasing again as an upper level cutoff low progresses eastward from the Pacific into the Central Plains, accompanied by a cold front moving through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall, there could be an increasing severe weather threat with this system. Both the heavy rainfall and severe weather potential will need to be monitored as the system evolves and forecast confidence increases.

Maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above to well above normal through most of the forecast period ahead of the frontal passage next week. Temperatures are expected to trend closer to seasonal normals behind the front.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Conditions are currently VFR but overnight will become MVFR as a surge of moisture brings rain and low ceilings. Winds will remain light and primarily from the east.

Marine

Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Winds through the next several days will prevail out of the east, with some near Small Craft Exercise Caution winds possible in the outer marine zones. Waves will generally be between 2 to 4 ft for the next few days before dropping to the 1 to 3 ft range late this weekend. Showers and storms will be possible this weekend and on Tuesday, where locally higher winds and seas could be possible.

Fire weather

Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Extreme to Exceptional drought is impacting much of the region and fuels are responding in kind, with KBDI values just below 800 across central Louisiana. The "best" values in our CWA are still between 550 and 600. A temporary respite will come as a surge of moisture will increase minRH values to 40 to 60% through the weekend. Winds are also forecasted to remain light and from the east.

Rainfall is forecast both Saturday and Tuesday. While this could assist in not seeing further degradations, its not expected to move the needle towards drought class improvements.

Watches, warnings and advisories

LA: None. TX: None. GM: None.