Lake Everett, IN Weather

Key messages

- 20% chance for isolated showers or sprinkles today, especially west of I-69. Plenty of dry hours otherwise. Little, if any impacts expected for Halloween evening.

- Very warm on Tuesday followed by increasing rain chances through Wednesday (60% chance).

Discussion

Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

An area of showers is underway spanning from central IA through extreme western Indiana. Mesoanalysis shows warm air advection aloft along with subtle near-surface convergence, and even modest elevated instability (through central IL, fading well before the IN line). This WAA and surface convergence lift north-northeast through early this afternoon. Despite an 8,000 foot dry layer and a 10-degree dew point depression, light rain is underway at Monticello, IN. Trends lead me to believe these showers will persist through at least the morning hours. The centroid of high pressure is analyzed over the greater Lansing area, suggesting the far northeast reaches of these showers will be limited, battling additional dry air and subsidence. Will carry on with the continued Halloween message of isoalted showers mainly west of I-69 (20% chance). Plenty of dry time otherwise of Halloween, especially for late-afternoon trick-or-treat hours. Cloudy and somewhat cool with highs just beyond 60 degrees.

Murky, spotty, and weakly forced shower chances linger through at least Monday as high pressure gradually gives way to ridging ahead of deepening low over the Central US. This results in periods of low- confidence 20-30% POPs. A weak shortwave moving through the OH River Valley presents a 20% chance of showers for far southern reaches of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, with perhaps a better moisture stream arriving overnight.

The primary item of interest in the extended forecast is the mid- latitude cyclone moving through midweek. Very warm on Tuesday (near- record highs) ahead of this low as the jet stream becomes highly amplified over the Midwest. Breezy with southerly wind gusts of 20- 25 mph. The occluding low over far northern lower Michigan looks to delay our best rain chance until late Tuesday night and Wednesday. How cyclogenesis evolves over the mid-Mississippi thereafter dictates how much our rain will see, or whether the cold/occluded frontal passage is our only chance for rain. Behind the low, still mild for early November with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Aviation

Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Existing TAFs are on track at this time. Wind takes on a more south-southeasterly direction later this morning at KFWA. Otherwise, no significant changes.

An area of rain over southeast IA is poorly modeled this hour. Mesoanalysis indicates this activity is the result of modest 850-mb WAA and subsequent theta-e advection, along with a narrow axis of elevated instability. These features are forecast to seep northeast through IL today and will be monitored for anything beyond PROB30 -SHRA at KSBN. High confidence in dry conditions at KFWA.

Watches, warnings and advisories

IN: None. OH: None. MI: None. MARINE: None.