Mount Carmel, FL Weather

: New AVIATION, MARINE:

Key messages

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas through Friday, becoming a High Risk this weekend.

- Rain chances increase late Saturday afternoon/evening, lasting through Sunday morning. Few showers can be expected during trick or treating, with chances steadily increasing overnight. Heavier rain totals remain generally along the coast between 0.5 to 1", with locally higher amounts possible.

- Moderate to strong easterly component in winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

Discussion

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Starting off with early this morning - quiet overall! GOES-16 Night Microphysics and IR/WV imagery illustrates upper-level clouds spreading in across from the west, estimated by GOES cloud top height of around 200-250mb, with a secondary layer at 500-600mb, matching well with 00Z HRRR proximity sounding trends. Ample dry air beneath this layer persists in the lower-levels, which will be the story as we go into the daytime hours as thick mid/upper-level clouds (and low-level Cu at the top of the mixed PBL layer around 3- 4000ft AGL continues). Main player and culprit in tropospheric moisture advection aloft is fueled from a broad shortwave impulse over Texas, funneling moisture/lift over the Mexican Plateau into the western and northern Gulf coast states. Will watch how this could interact with forecast highs, but generally expecting highs in the upper 70's to some low 80's. Subtle PVA associated with the broad impulse over Texas, expected to drive NE over the Gulf/FL ridge axis will support a few distant radar echoes aloft but overall, anticipating a dry day.

Friday night, cloudy and overall calm but model soundings illustrate deepening SE return flow and WAA/moisture advection regime increasing, ascending/shrinking the mid-level dry air pocket with time. Leads to a cloudy night overall.

Saturday, the broad shortwave/general weakness remains on top of the northern Gulf, supporting subtle lift to steadily increase showers, mainly later in the day/evening. It'll take some time to moisten the aforementioned mid-layer, perhaps still with virga turning into light showers with time. Light/scattered mainly around sunset but will increase with time going overnight. Best chances remain mainly later Saturday night, primarily midnight into early Sunday but want to advertise it is not looking like an all-night washout. Some long- range guidance hints at a few individual QPF bullseyes along the coast or just south, but will take a closer look at CAMs and what they are targeting in this potential, meanwhile, totals have been trending somewhat lighter for northern areas, going into the day on Sunday. Something we'll acquire greater confidence in details by during the day on Friday.

This impulse dives southeast, away from the general area on Sunday, with rain chances diminishing during the day, low clouds will likely hang around making it a cooler day with highs in the mid 70's.

Then going into next week, the big story becomes a more distinct evolution of several stronger upper-level features over the Rockies, and how they will evolve downstream into the central US and eventually into our neck of the woods. Many complexities here, but don't want to get too caught into the weeds. The broad overview is there will be 2 main players to monitor - a lead, high-amplitude longwave trough axis making it's way onshore the Pac NW and another shortwave impulse rounding the edge of the trough axis swinging into Baja/northern Mexico. How these two phase and interact, all within a broad-scale wester/central US ridge pattern spells concern, especially if both impulses cut off into an upper-level low migrating (slowly) east into the mid Mississippi valley region. Additional upstream impulses over south-central Canada will be another player on the field, resulting in eventual trough amplitude into the general area. Concern is that we could have 1) lead low genesis over the central US, eject quickly NE into the Great Lakes then 2) A secondary low develop with the main energy at the apex of the trough over the southern MS valley region. This would favor the likelihood for our first distinct round of severe weather along the northern Gulf coast. GEFS Machine Learning severe probs continue to increase in this aforementioned vicinity, with timing being very low confidence because, as you can tell, MANY factors at play here that could result in different eventual solutions. For example, a more closed off low could result in a slower (occluded) surface low over the central US delaying any secondary low. Highlighting the days to watch being Tuesday through Wednesday, could lean later in that 24hr range but again, we'll have to keep a close eye on it as this.

Beyond that, not seeing any real deep arctic connection after the system departs but we'll cool down noticably back with lows in the 40's late week. A nice cooldown overall with highs rather seasonal to follow. KLG

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight. Winds remain out of the northeast near or less than 5 knots at night, increasing to near 10 knots during the day. Locations near the coast may gust to near 20 knots at times during the day. MM/25

Marine

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Moderate easterly winds prevail today across the marine waters, diminishing somewhat this evening. A moderate to strong easterly flow follows for Saturday through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary Sunday into early next week. Winds gradually relax and turn increasingly onshore by mid-week. MM/25

Preliminary point temps/pops

Mobile 82 65 81 66 / 0 0 40 60 Pensacola 82 68 80 68 / 0 0 30 60 Destin 82 69 81 68 / 0 0 20 40 Evergreen 82 62 80 62 / 0 0 30 50 Waynesboro 81 60 81 61 / 0 0 30 60 Camden 81 61 77 61 / 0 0 30 60 Crestview 84 64 82 64 / 0 0 30 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

AL: High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL: High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS: None. GM: None.