Ellenton, FL Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong.

- Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible, mainly inland and over southwest Florida.

Discussion

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Very little change to overall forecast dynamics/reasoning. U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S., and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida. The persistent U/L low which remains just northeast of the Bahamas will lift slowly north today and will be absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western Atlantic today and Friday. A strong northern stream disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest over the next several days causing the west coast trough to amplify: which will strengthen the downstream ridge over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the forecast area combined with the increasing large scale subsidence will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida to climb several degrees above climatic normals today through Saturday.

A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving slowly over the mid Atlantic coast and Florida Sunday and Monday. An associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. This will also decrease heights over the state with daytime temperatures dropping back several degrees due to the increasing cloudiness/showers, but will still run above climatic normals.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the region today with a rather tight pressure gradient in place: but not as strong as the past several days. Gusty northeast winds will continue across west central and southwest Florida along with the adjacent coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly across the interior and southwest Florida, due to the continued convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic which will advect scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Any precipitation will be light.

Over the weekend, the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough moves over the state and an associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area with showers likely along with isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will build back over the region early next week in the wake of the cold front with clearing skies. However, no cold air in sight as temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above climatic normals each day. Relatively muggy conditions will persist with dew points generally in the 60s to around 70.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Areas of MVFR CIGs the remainder of the night vcnty all terminals with SCT LCL BKN025 near TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ: and 010-015 near PGD/FMY/RSW. Cloud bases will lift around mid morning Thursday with areas of BKN CIGs 040-050 the remainder of the day. Slight chance of a light shower at PGD/FMY/RSW mainly during the afternoon hours, however CIGs are expected to remain VFR. Gusty northeast winds will persist at all terminals.

Marine

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Advisory level winds will persist across the waters through Thursday morning, with exercise caution the remainder of the day. An evening surge of wind Thursday evening could cause a few hours of advisory level winds, especially over the outer waters. Winds are expected to remain elevated at cautionary levels through Saturday night. A cold front will push across the waters on Sunday with showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. The gradient will weaken behind the cold front with conditions dropping below cautionary levels, which will continue into early next week.

Fire weather

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TPA 86 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 0 FMY 88 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 0 GIF 87 72 88 72 / 30 20 20 0 SRQ 87 72 87 72 / 20 0 30 10 BKV 87 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 85 72 85 73 / 10 0 20 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: None. Gulf waters: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.