San Clemente, CA Weather

Synopsis

Gradual cooling will continue through the weekend with Sunday high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below average for inland areas. Clouds will increase with a slight chance of light showers from the coast to the coastal slopes of the mountains for tonight into Friday morning. Light rain could return for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with heavier rainfall possible for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dry and warmer for early next week with high temperatures warming to around average for next Tuesday.

Discussion

FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE: SAN DIEGO: WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES:

: UPDATED AVIATION, MARINE, AND BEACHES DISCUSSIONS:

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A gradual cooling trend will continue through Sunday with high temperatures on Sunday 10 to 15 degrees below average for inland areas. Clouds will increase and there is a 20 to 30 percent chance for measurable rainfall from the coast to the coastal slopes of the mountains, mainly for tonight into Friday morning. Any rainfall should be mostly less than 0.10 inch with only a 10 percent chance for more than 0.25 inch.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday): Chances for precipitation will increase from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with the most likely time for any heavier rainfall for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The most likely rainfall through 11 PM Saturday is around 0.10 inch.

For Saturday morning through Sunday night, from the coast to the mountains, the chance for 0.10 inch or more of rainfall ranges from 75 percent in eastern Los Angeles County to 85 percent for southern San Diego County. The chance for 1 inch or more of rainfall ranges from 35 to 40 percent for eastern Los Angeles County to 55 to 65 percent for southern San Diego County.

Cluster analysis shows ensemble members of the GFS are decidedly drier than those of the ECMWF and Canadian models with little overlap with the ensemble members of those two other ensemble systems.

A warming trend is expected for Monday through Wednesday of next week with high temperatures warming to around average on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday are expected to be dry. There is around a 10 to 15 percent chance for light precipitation around next Wednesday from a low pressure system moving into northern and central California.

Aviation

291130Z: BKN-SCT marine layer clouds based 3000-4000 feet MSL will eventually scatter out by 17Z. Low clouds based at 3000-3500 feet MSL will rapidly but randomly redevelop across the coastal basin after 01Z. Most of the coastal basin will be covered overnight into Friday. Areas of -SHRA with cigs down to 2500 feet MSL near the coast after 08Z Friday.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. As a storm system moves through the coastal waters this weekend, shifting winds and seas are likely to increase by Sunday morning, possibly to hazardous levels. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday morning. Stay tuned for updates.

Beaches

High tides during the late mornings will generate significant coastal flooding through Friday. Tides will be anywhere from 1.4 to 1.6 feet above astronomical predictions, bringing high tides to near 7.7 feet just after 11 AM today and near 7.25 feet around noon Friday. A Coastal Flood Warning through midday will become a Coastal Flood Advisory at 1 PM this afternoon until 2 PM Friday.

A storm system should bring increased surf Sunday and Monday.

Climate

The water temperature at Scripps Pier on Wednesday was another record warm temperature for the date at 73.6 F, 10 degrees above the long-term average for the date. Water temperatures at Scripps Pier have largely plateaued for the past month, though were a little cooler for the middle of October, at a time of year when water temperatures would normally be declining. Hence, the recent stretch of new daily record warm water temperatures day after day after day. The ensemble mean of the ECMWF seasonal forecast from October was for water temperatures along the southern California coast to average 10 degrees F above normal for December through February.

The water level at San Diego during the peak of the highest high tide on Wednesday was the third highest on record for San Diego. The highest water level for today is expected to be around 0.28 feet lower than on Wednesday, which would place it as the 8th highest water level recorded at San Diego. This recent 5-day stretch from Sunday through Thursday of this week will likely include 5 of the 10 highest water levels ever recorded at San Diego.

The record high water levels of this week have been the result of the combination of higher astronomical high tides during the full moon combined with sea levels that are around 17 inches higher than a year ago as a result of thermal expansion of the record warm water from the strengthening El Nino.

Highest water levels at San Diego:

1) Oct 27, 2026: 2.80 feet MHHW (8.52 feet MLLW) 2) Oct 26, 2026: 2.72 feet MHHW (8.44 feet MLLW) 3) Oct 28, 2026: 2.71 feet MHHW (8.43 feet MLLW) 4t) Jul 14, 2026: 2.54 feet MHHW (8.26 feet MLLW) 4t) Nov 25, 2015: 2.54 feet MHHW (8.26 feet MLLW) 6) Aug 02, 2023: 2.53 feet MHHW (8.25 feet MLLW) 7) Dec 13, 2012: 2.45 feet MHHW (8.17 feet MLLW) 8) Oct 25, 2026: 2.40 feet MHHW (8.12 feet MLLW)

Water levels will likely be at least a few inches higher during king tides the week of Thanksgiving and the week of Christmas.

SKYWARN: Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CA: Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PDT Friday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ: None.