Madison, CA Weather

Key messages

1) Cool and mostly dry weather conditions through Friday.

2) Breezy southwest winds through today over the Sierra.

3) Pattern change may bring unsettled weather conditions this weekend.

: SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion (with some sarcasm)! Latest visible satellite imagery depicts low clouds over portions of the Sacramento Valley this morning, while high clouds stream southeast across the region. A weak shortwave trough will traverse the area today, bringing a slight chance of water falling from the sky over Shasta County this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions and below normal high temperatures are expected. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the 60s for the Valley, 50s-60s for the Foothills, and 40s-50s over the mountains. Breezy southwest winds over the Sierra will continue to decrease throughout the day, aka the chances you get swept away today decrease into the afternoon. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler, generally in the low to mid 40s across the Valley, 30s to 40s in the Foothills and in the 20s over the mountains. Wowza, perfect short sleeves weather! Make sure to pump that AC overnight!

Lighter onshore flow is expected Tuesday, with a transition to a brief period of northern flow Wednesday morning. A surface high will build briefly across the forecast area Wednesday, promoting drier and near-seasonal temperatures prevailing until the weekend. Forecast high temperatures are expected to warm up into the 70s for the Valleys on Wednesday, before a gradual cool down Thursday and Friday. Cold morning lows are expected for the mountains and higher elevation basins the next few days, with near to below freezing temperatures. Patchy fog or haze will be possible each morning in the Valley. Keep those eyes peeled people!

: LONG TERM DISCUSSION: And so it continues. Here is where things may get feisty (grab that popcorn fellas)! Spooky day (Halloween), may scare some trick or treaters with some H2O instead of candy (how cruel!). The Foothills and Sierras in Tuolumne, Calaveras, Amador, Alpine, and El Dorado counties all have the highest chances for H2O falling from the sky. The 75th percentile shows lighter amounts less than half an inch mainly in the Sierra, while the 90th percentile shows amounts ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch Halloween evening. Though, the higher chances look to be focused on Sunday. Models tend to agree that the higher rain chances will occur on the eastern side of the forecast area. While the 10th and 25th percentiles each show 0 inches respectively, the 75th ranges from 0.5 to 1 inch in these counties, and the 90th percentile shows 1 to 2 inches. The models have the higher end of these amounts centered around Tuolumne County, and decreasing in amounts moving Northward along the Sierra. The Foothills have a 90th percentile of 0.4-0.8 inches of rain throughout Sunday. As for the Valley, 90th percentiles between 0.1 to 0.25 inches are displayed. That was aloooottt of percentiles!

Lingering showers may be possible through Monday morning, but models indicate a ridge building in right after the trough exits by Tuesday. Through next week, there is a lot of uncertainty in cluster analysis as to prevailing weather conditions. Some models show another trough moving in Wednesday, while others show a zonal to slight ridging pattern through end of next week. We shall see what verifies, but for now it remains confuzzling.

Aviation

Primarily VFR conditions everywhere for the next 24 hours. Winds less than 12kts everywhere through 16z Wednesday, then periodically gusty winds up to 20kts in the valley, mountain and foothill canyons until 22z Wednesday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.