Compton, CA Weather

Synopsis

27/1053 PM.

Gradual cooling will continue through the week as will coastal flooding issues due to very high tides. The next storm system is expected to arrive late Friday or Saturday with rain chances continuing into Sunday.

Short term (tue-fri)

27/1053 PM.

Another very quiet weather day saw max temperatures a few degrees cooler in many areas compared to yesterday. Further cooling is expected across most of the area tomorrow as well. Mid and high clouds will expand over the area leading to partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some marine layer stratus clouds will try to form in some areas like the LA Basin, but the higher clouds will likely disrupt the marine layer's formation by limiting the radiational cooling.

Dry and mild conditions are expected through at least Thursday as a trough pattern develops along the West coast. Increasing low clouds and fog are possible through the week as onshore flow increases ahead of the next upper low. Otherwise, minimal if any weather impacts through the short range period. Temperatures will lower 1-2 degrees each day, and by Friday highs will mostly be in the 60s, except some lower 70s in the warmer valleys. There are still a few ensemble solutions indicating some very light rain as early as Friday afternoon, mainly along the Central Coast.

Long term (sat-tue)

27/238 PM.

The 12z models today continued to indicate a weakening trend with the approaching system in terms of expected rain amounts. This has been a tricky system as it's following under the main upper low moving into the Pac NW. The one interesting aspect are the PW's which increase to around 1.2" Saturday night which could support some brief heavier shower at times. However, the upper low has been trending a little farther south with each run. So there remains still quite a bit of uncertainty but trends are generally favoring a system that should mostly just provide a beneficial rain. And given the current trajectory of the storm snow levels are expected to be no lower than 9000 feet.

Aviation

28/0552Z.

At 0455Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 30 percent chc of MVFR cigs at all non desert sites. VFR cigs 060-080 are possible at any time.

KLAX: Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for BKN020-030 cigs from thru 18Z. BKN060-080 conds are possible at anytime. Any east wind component is expected to remain under 8 kt.

KBUR: Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for BKN020-030 cigs from thru 18Z. BKN060-080 conds are possible at anytime.

Marine

27/940 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds overnight, ending Wednesday morning. From Wednesday afternoon through Saturday, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. There is a 30% chance for SCA winds Wednesday evening for the waters north of Point Sal. On Sunday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For Wednesday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Sunday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. There is a 50% chance for SCA level winds Sunday from the Santa Barbara Channel to the southern inner waters.

A significant storm system will impact the area sometime in the Saturday to Sunday timeframe. There is a wide range of outcomes, but there is at least a low threat of a 12-24 hour period of strong winds and step seas.

Beaches

27/652 AM.

Very high tides between 7.5 and 8.0 feet (roughly 1.0-1.5 feet above astronomical predictions) are expected during the morning hours through Thursday over all coastal areas, with the highest towards Los Angeles County. Through Wednesday, the tides may remain near record. In fact, at San Pedro, a new record tide of 8.02 feet was set on Monday morning.

Minor coastal flooding is likely purely based on the high tides. While these tides might be the highest of all-time, similar extreme tides in the past tell us that coastal communities should expect shallow flooding of harbor walkways, beach parking lots and bike paths. With swells and surf on the lower-end during these extreme tides (2-3 feet), the threat of more significance/damaging impacts should be limited to the most vulnerable areas that have little-to-no sandy beach left and have already seen water damage.

With that said, these is a small change for more elevated surf on south-facing shores around Wednesday as waves from a southern Hemisphere storm arrive. The majority of computer projections keep this wave energy on the small side, but a couple are a little larger.

With all of these considerations in play, Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today through Thursday. There is a low potential for targeted Coastal Flooding Warnings if a larger swell develops and produces elevated surf on top of the very high tides.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CA: Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 1 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ: Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).