Scenic, AZ Weather

Key messages

* Dry and seasonable conditions continue through tonight.

* Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return tomorrow and continue through the weekend.

* Cool and dry conditions for early next week.

Discussion

Southwest flow continues over the forecast area ahead of a Pacific trough. This is resulting in near normal temperatures and partly cloudy skies, a pattern that is expected to continue through tomorrow afternoon. As the trough continues to push onshore the resulting moisture is expected to combine with moisture from TS Vance, resulting in several days of soggy conditions, particularly in western Arizona. Showers and thunderstorms begin to the east early Friday morning, with additional development further west by early evening. Activity remains mainly limited to the eastern half of the forecast area until Saturday evening when a secondary wave off the California coast kicks its way onshore. Impacts are still somewhat variable as they depend strongly on the path of this wave. The current, more aggressive track has this wave moving quickly and the associated moisture resulting in precipitation across the forecast area, however a slower track would limit the western moisture availability and keep showers largely in Arizona. Mountain snow remains a possibility, however snow levels aren't expected to drop below the peaks until Sunday morning, by which point most of the precipitation will have concluded, limiting most of the potential accumulation. Activity dries out by Monday as the system moves east, leaving dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures through late week.

Aviation

For Harry Reid: For the 18Z Forecast Package: VFR conditions and light winds expected for much of the TAF period. Brief S-SW gusts near 15 kts possible this afternoon, with greater confidence in gusty conditions after 18Z Friday due to increasing -SHRA/-TSRA chances. Look for cloud bases remaining above 15kft AGL through at least 18Z Friday, but could see lower ceilings afterwards.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California: For the 18Z Forecast Package: Expect primarily VFR conditions through the period. VCSH/VCTS may arrive near KEED and KIFP after 15Z Friday. Localized gusts near 20 kts will be possible during the afternoon hours, but light/terrain driven winds forecast overnight.

Spotter information statement

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.