Urbana, AR Weather

: New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT:

Key messages

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Showers will push into deep east Texas this evening, spreading areawide overnight with rainfall chances continuing through much of the day Saturday.

- Scattered rainfall looks to begin tapering off into Halloween evening, but spotty showers remain possible.

- Another round of rainfall and potentially organized thunderstorms looks to arrive late Monday into Tuesday ahead of a potent cold front which will bring a return of more seasonable temperatures by mid to late next week.

Discussion

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 A few peeks of sunshine punctuate what is otherwise a mostly cloudy afternoon across the Four State Region. Highs are taking aim at the upper 70s and lower 80s, with those sites which see a bit more sunshine potentially trending a couple degrees higher than guidance. Skies are expected to fill in to become overcast into the evening ahead of incoming rainfall, with lows falling into the upper 50s northeast to low to middle 60s south and west. At the synoptic level, the emerging shortwave trough will be pushing northeast across Texas by this evening, pushing showers into the Lufkin area by shortly after sunset, and spreading rainfall north and east towards the I-20 and I-49 corridors by midnight, with rainfall solidly in progress areawide by daybreak.

All eyes are on the rainfall forecast for Halloween night, and the latest HRRR guidance suggests some optimistic news for our Louisiana zones. While the greatest chance of rainfall looks to be earlier Saturday, trending downwards towards evening, spotty scattered showers will remain possible, especially across our north. Louisiana and adjacent zones currently look to have the best chance of a break in the rain for their evening activities, but all the same, having umbrellas handy would be advisable. A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. A few lingering showers are possible towards dawn Sunday across our easternmost zones, with a generally dry second half of the weekend to follow, under the subsident effects of an area of ridging attempting to define itself over the ArkLaTex between periods of more active weather.

During our brief respite on Sunday, a deepening longwave trough will be advancing across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, amplifying as it does so, to the point of ejecting over the Front range and Plains by midday Monday, with a pronounced pressure gradient on its southwestern flank, transitioning the ArkLaTex back into a southwesterly flow regime aloft, accompanied by southerly surface winds. The trough looks to continue digging southwards as it pushes slowly east, swinging a potent cold front across the ArkLaTex during the day Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is catching up with this timing progression, introducing rain in earnest from the northwest beginning Monday evening, with the best chance for a push of more organized convection during the day Tuesday, with showers coming to an end late Tuesday, overnight into Wednesday morning. Mostly dry conditions will follow, though the long range GFS hints that as our parent trough drifts east, a cutoff low will form over the Gulf Coast, potentially kicking up a slight chance of showers across our southeast next Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near-seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s by mid to late next week.

/26/

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The next 6 hours or so are expected to remain VFR for all sites, with a high cloud deck around 20k ft through the afternoon. Beginning this evening, lower clouds will develop from southwest to northeast ahead of rain showers generally from the same direction. Models continue to disagree on coverage and timing, which the main motivator behind keeping SHRA for much of the time rain is expected. Expect rain to cover much of the airspace through the end of the period. Increased moisture from these showers will result in low cloud development around daybreak tomorrow, again developing from southwest to northeast. This forecast package is a tad on the optimistic side of ceiling heights, with KLFK/KTYR/KGGG/KSHV and KTXK/KMLU/KELD hovering on the low end of MVFR and IFR levels, respectively. Guidance is suggesting lower cigs than written for this package so if future runs stay consistent with those solutions, future forecasts could be adjusted accordingly. /57/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tomorrow. /26/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 64 75 63 80 / 50 50 20 10 MLU 63 78 63 79 / 10 30 50 30 DEQ 60 72 60 79 / 20 50 20 10 TXK 60 73 61 79 / 30 50 30 10 ELD 60 74 61 78 / 20 40 40 20 TYR 62 75 63 80 / 40 50 20 10 GGG 62 76 62 80 / 50 60 20 10 LFK 63 78 64 82 / 60 50 10 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.