Ponca, AR Weather

: New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION:

Key messages

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this weekend as several upper level impulses move through.

- Rain amounts are not expected to be excessive this weekends.

- A much stronger system is set to arrive Tuesday through early Wednesday showers and thunderstorms likely.

- The chances of severe weather appear minimal low at this time with the system next week but can not be ruled out entirely.

Discussion

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

No appreciable changes will be made to the current forecast package with pattern continuing to feature a somewhat amplified upper flow. Guidance continues to show broad ridging over the majority of the nation with upper troughing / upper low now making its way on shore over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will become a major player in in the forecast early next week.

Satellite imagery continues to show a significant increase in moisture as southwest flow increases. Guidance remains steadfast in moving a couple of weak upper level impulses moving through and bring at least some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state.

The first impulse is slated to move across tonight and early Saturday with the second one right on its heels keeping precip chances in the forecast through the weekend. The weekend will not be a complete washout by any stretch with QPF in the quarter to half inch range.

Weak ridging returns for Sunday night and Monday although a stray shower can not be ruled out. Attention will then turn to the previously mentioned west coast trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position and into the northern and central plains by the end of Monday.

Moisture levels will be increasing substantially as the parent low moves into the upper midwest Monday night into Tuesday. The surface cold front will be located over far east Oklahoma early Tuesday with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the boundary over far SW MO/far NW AR.

Long range models are in decent enough agreement with bringing the cold front through the FA Tuesday and Tuesday night with upper support keeping precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Rain will likely be in the region for election day but flooding is not a major concern with the speed of the system and antecedent conditions but several inches of rain can not be ruled out in spots and would actually be welcomed.

Severe weather at this time does not appear widespread with upper flow largely parallel to the system and stability looking limited. Still, a wary eye will remain on this system as it evolves over the next few days.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Some precip has been noted on radar: but dry air near the SFC has kept most areas dry. This trend should continue into the overnight hrs: with mainly dry conditions expected. Chances for rainfall do increase for Sat: but mainly mentioning VCSH for most sites. Better chances for precip will come just beyond this TAF period.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Batesville AR 82 59 77 57 / 0 0 20 70 Camden AR 77 57 73 57 / 0 0 40 50 Harrison AR 75 57 72 56 / 0 0 30 40 Hot Springs AR 76 59 72 57 / 0 0 40 50 Little Rock AR 79 61 75 60 / 0 10 30 60 Monticello AR 76 61 75 61 / 0 0 30 60 Mount Ida AR 75 54 71 54 / 0 10 60 60 Mountain Home AR 79 59 73 57 / 0 0 20 70 Newport AR 80 61 78 60 / 0 0 10 60 Pine Bluff AR 77 59 74 58 / 0 0 30 60 Russellville AR 80 59 73 56 / 0 0 40 60 Searcy AR 80 59 77 58 / 0 0 20 60 Stuttgart AR 80 62 77 61 / 0 0 20 60

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.