Ozan, AR Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Showers will push into deep east Texas this evening, spreading areawide overnight with rainfall chances continuing through much of the day Saturday.

- Scattered rainfall looks to begin tapering off into Halloween evening, but spotty showers remain possible.

- Another round of rainfall and potentially organized thunderstorms looks to arrive late Monday into Tuesday ahead of a potent cold front which will bring a return of more seasonable temperatures by mid to late next week.

Discussion

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 A few peeks of sunshine punctuate what is otherwise a mostly cloudy afternoon across the Four State Region. Highs are taking aim at the upper 70s and lower 80s, with those sites which see a bit more sunshine potentially trending a couple degrees higher than guidance. Skies are expected to fill in to become overcast into the evening ahead of incoming rainfall, with lows falling into the upper 50s northeast to low to middle 60s south and west. At the synoptic level, the emerging shortwave trough will be pushing northeast across Texas by this evening, pushing showers into the Lufkin area by shortly after sunset, and spreading rainfall north and east towards the I-20 and I-49 corridors by midnight, with rainfall solidly in progress areawide by daybreak.

All eyes are on the rainfall forecast for Halloween night, and the latest HRRR guidance suggests some optimistic news for our Louisiana zones. While the greatest chance of rainfall looks to be earlier Saturday, trending downwards towards evening, spotty scattered showers will remain possible, especially across our north. Louisiana and adjacent zones currently look to have the best chance of a break in the rain for their evening activities, but all the same, having umbrellas handy would be advisable. A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. A few lingering showers are possible towards dawn Sunday across our easternmost zones, with a generally dry second half of the weekend to follow, under the subsident effects of an area of ridging attempting to define itself over the ArkLaTex between periods of more active weather.

During our brief respite on Sunday, a deepening longwave trough will be advancing across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, amplifying as it does so, to the point of ejecting over the Front range and Plains by midday Monday, with a pronounced pressure gradient on its southwestern flank, transitioning the ArkLaTex back into a southwesterly flow regime aloft, accompanied by southerly surface winds. The trough looks to continue digging southwards as it pushes slowly east, swinging a potent cold front across the ArkLaTex during the day Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is catching up with this timing progression, introducing rain in earnest from the northwest beginning Monday evening, with the best chance for a push of more organized convection during the day Tuesday, with showers coming to an end late Tuesday, overnight into Wednesday morning. Mostly dry conditions will follow, though the long range GFS hints that as our parent trough drifts east, a cutoff low will form over the Gulf Coast, potentially kicking up a slight chance of showers across our southeast next Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near-seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s by mid to late next week.

/26/

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For the 31/00Z TAF update, gradual degradation of vis/cigs is likely within the period as a low pressure disturbance shifts across the airspace, carrying VCSH/-SHRA from west to east terminals. MVFR cigs will arrive to all terminals after 31/09Z with IFR/LIFR cigs likely after 31/14Z through most of the rest of the period. Light easterly surface winds will continue through the period. /16/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tomorrow. /26/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 64 73 63 80 / 50 50 20 20 MLU 63 77 64 80 / 10 30 40 40 DEQ 58 73 57 81 / 20 50 30 10 TXK 61 72 61 80 / 30 50 30 10 ELD 58 73 58 79 / 20 40 40 30 TYR 62 75 63 82 / 40 50 10 0 GGG 61 74 60 81 / 50 60 10 10 LFK 63 78 63 83 / 60 50 10 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.