Little Rock, AR Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist into the week.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the work week.

-Some appreciable rainfall is possible this weekend across the state, but confidence in amounts remains low.

Discussion

Surface observations early this morning show light and variable winds across the state. Temperatures early this morning are in the 50s to lower 60s across the state. Satellite this morning shows some high level cloudiness streaming southwest to northeast across the state. Lows early this morning will bottom out in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the state.

Dry conditions will persist at least the latter part of the work week across Arkansas. Upper trough currently east of the four corner region over the southern Rockies will lift northeast into the central/northern Plains later today. In response to the upper trough, the ridge of high pressure east of the state will shift eastward and begin to flatten out late tonight. Light southerly flow is expected through Wednesday.

The aforementioned upper trough will then lift north into the northern Plains on Tuesday with another upper trough entering the Pacific northwest. Winds will veer to the southwest over the state in response to the long wave troughing over the western US around the middle of the week. A couple of upper level disturbances will approach the state this weekend bringing chances to the state Friday afternoon evening through Sunday. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to diverge on timing and placement with the GFS bringing in deep moisture on Friday and the ECMWF on Saturday.

Unsurprisingly, the GFS is far more bullish than the ECMWF on rainfall amounts for this weekend across the state. A look at the most recent 12z ECMWF 90th percentile vs the previous one shows that the western two-thirds of the state with one half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall.The previous 12z ECMWF 12z 90th percentile run confined higher amounts just to the western half of the state. A look at the 12z GFS 90th percentile today versus yesterday is far more bullish showing between an inch to an inch and a half over a large part of Arkansas with amounts less than an inch over parts of far northern and northwest Arkansas. The mean GFS ensemble versus yesterday shows around a quarter of an inch statewide, which is more expansive than yesterday that only shows the same said amount over the northern two thirds of Arkansas. A look at the mean ECMWF versus yesterday remaining nearly unchanged with amounts ranging from a tenth of an inch to one quarter of an inch across the state. As we get closer to the weekend, the timing, placement, and precipitation amounts will likely change as model runs reach a consensus.

Temperatures will remain roughly around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late October into early November.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Expect some high level cloudiness statewide through the period with light and variable winds through the early morning hours. Light south to southeast winds will persist through the forecast period at all TAF sites.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR flight category is expected to continue across all forecast sites for the entire forecast period from midday on Monday through midday on Tuesday. High level clouds will be present across the forecast period and surface winds will be light and variable with deviations to out of the southeast to south-southeast later Tuesday morning when surface winds become re-established from the overnight hours.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Batesville AR 49 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 47 80 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 52 75 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 49 78 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 52 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 50 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 46 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 50 73 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 48 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 49 78 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 48 78 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 51 79 52 83 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.