Megargel, AL Weather

: New DISCUSSION, MARINE:

Key messages

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a High Risk this weekend. Surf heights may increase up to 4-6 feet by Sunday.

- Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon/evening, lasting into Sunday. Few showers can be expected during trick or treating, with chances steadily increasing overnight. Heavier rain totals remain generally along the coast between 0.5 to 1", with locally higher amounts possible.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

Discussion

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to become established throughout the day today as an upper ridge pushes into the western Atlantic and a southern stream trough lifts out of Texas. As this occurs, deep-layer moisture will steadily increase over the next 24-36 hours. Although this will help to bring some increased cloud cover into the region today/tonight, subsidence from the nearby ridge will help to keep the area dry through tonight. Highs today will likely reach the upper 70s to low 80. Mild lows are expected tonight due to the increase in moisture, with lows only dropping into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.

The pattern begins to change by Saturday, and especially into Saturday night and Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave pushes across the Deep South. PWATs by Saturday evening look to increase to around 1.7-1.9 inches, which is generally around the 95th percentile for this time of year. This increase in moisture, paired with weak diffluence aloft and isentropic ascent overtop a cooler airmass (brought on by a Cold Air Damming regime), will result in an increase in rain chances for the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop by as early as Saturday afternoon, particularly for areas west of I-65. Coverage increases to scattered to numerous and spreads eastward Saturday night into Sunday morning as the shortwave moves overhead. Not anticipating any severe weather due to very limited instability/poor lapse rates, and a rather unfavorable wind profile. As far as rainfall, general amounts are forecast to remain less than an inch, as rainfall intensities should be on the lighter side, given the overrunning nature of this system. That being said, 12z REFS 48hr PMMs do have a few isolated bulls-eyes approaching the 2-3 inch range. If a few embedded thunderstorms are able to develop, these locally higher rainfall amounts may become realized in some spots. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours as the shortwave pushes to our east.

Shortwave ridging briefly builds in for the Sunday night through Tuesday morning time period, giving way to another brief period of dry conditions. The next big story comes midweek as a northern stream shortwave trough phases with a southern stream shortwave trough over the Rockies, evolving into a longwave trough which pushes eastwards throughout the week. As it moves into the central US, guidance continues to suggest that the trough will amplify and take on a more neutral or negative tilt as it lifts towards the Appalachians. This type of synoptic pattern would allow for a diffluent flow pattern aloft to spread across much of the southern US. At the surface, cyclogenesis appears likely over the Northern Plains by Monday. This low will push northeastward, eventually occluding into the Great Lakes region/southern Canada by midweek. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Appalachians should help to maintain the Cold Air Damming regime across the eastern US through at least Tuesday night. This high will eventually weaken and push to the east in response to an eastward-marching cold front associated with the occluding low. Further details are rather uncertain at this time due to continued model inconsistencies regarding speed, placement, and magnitude of these synoptic features. That being said, what we do know is that rain chances will likely increase for Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the cold front approaches and passes through the area. It should be noted that analog guidance does suggest that this type of pattern could support the threat for severe weather across portions of the southern US, so this is definitely something we will be watching closely over the coming days. After the passage of the front, a cooler and drier airmass filters into the area for the remainder of the week.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a High Risk for this weekend and into early next week. In addition, a High Surf Advisory will likely become necessary for Sunday into Sunday night as surf heights increase to 4-6 feet. /96

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. The current generally easterly winds will wane over night before increasing again tomorrow morning to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, especially closer to the coast. There is currently low confidence for MVFR ceilings just along the coast early tomorrow morning. SS/97

Marine

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through tonight. Winds will gradually increase on Saturday, becoming strong by Saturday night. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for our local Gulf zones Saturday evening through at least Monday afternoon. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /96

Preliminary point temps/pops

Mobile 66 80 67 76 / 0 20 40 60 Pensacola 69 80 68 76 / 0 20 40 60 Destin 70 81 68 76 / 0 20 40 60 Evergreen 63 80 65 72 / 0 20 30 50 Waynesboro 62 80 64 74 / 0 40 50 60 Camden 62 76 63 69 / 0 30 40 50 Crestview 65 82 66 76 / 0 20 30 60

Watches, warnings and advisories

AL: High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL: High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS: None. GM: None.