Kasaan, AK Weather

Synopsis

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through the weekend.

Short term

High pressure continues to remain in control of the weather over the Panhandle this afternoon with clear skies remaining widespread. With the clear skies during the overnight hours temperatures, dropped to around this freezing but we have seen a lot of places recover back into the 40s while a few places have managed to get into the 50s. With the continued clear skies this evening, temperatures are expected to drop again during the overnight hours down to around the low 30s to high 20s for most locations. The cold and clear weather is expected to come to an end this weekend as we see a front move into the panhandle Friday night for Yakutat, Saturday for the northern and central panhandle, and Sunday for the souther panhandle. This front will usher in some winds and rain to the area. With this front, the heaviest rain is expected to be along the NE Gulf coast down to Cape Spencer with up to 2" possible. Farther inland and to the south, rainfall accumulations for Saturday look to be less than an inch. As for snowfall amounts, currently thinking is that there will be a few inches of snow up at the White Pass but should remain below advisory threshold of 4 inches or more in 12 hours.

Long term

/Saturday through Tuesday/: Going into Saturday morning, the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward, not fully pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday evening into Saturday night. The timing of this has increased in confidence, however remains somewhat uncertain for more inland parts of the panhandle from Juneau southward on if the precipitation onset will be more in the evening or pushed later into the overnight hours, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push in further than the outer coast. Model agreement is however narrowing in on the timing of this first front pushing east across the panhandle Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with the highest rainfall totals expected along the NE Gulf coastline around Yakutat. Generally expecting around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hours for the Yakutat area Friday night through Saturday night.

The precipitation type expected is still a bit uncertain for the Saturday night period and will depend largely on the location, as some parts of the northern panhandle further inland from the outer Gulf coast may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday night into the overnight hours as the front initially moves in. With this in place, some locations at sea level in the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before quickly transitioning to rain. Any snow mixing in is low in confidence at this time still, and will not have any expected accumulation at sea level.

This more active pattern will continue into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening with some clouds hanging around the NE Gulf coast area which could bring condition lowered ceilings potentially down to MVFR or even IFR. High pressure will still be over the area so most places will continue to see nice conditions ahead of the next system that is supposed to approach the area near the end of the TAF period.

Marine

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): With a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, the area is experiencing fairly benign marine weather conditions today. However, more active weather is expected to begin as an area of low pressure sends a front into the area. Right now, the strongest storm force winds are expected near Cape Suckling. The strongest winds are expected from late Friday night through early Saturday morning. With the front, generally gale force winds and significant wave heights over 10 feet are expected. Sunday, the system should begin to weaken, and winds in the Gulf of Alaska should decrease. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding timing, this far out.

Inside (Inner Channels): Due to an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, winds in the inner channels are generally below 15 kts. However, more active weather is expected heading into the weekend as an area of low pressure pushes a front into the inner channels. Saturday, winds are expected to increase, particularly for Young Bay and near Point Couverden, where winds above 25 kts are possible. The strongest winds look to be from Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait. Early Sunday morning, gale force winds are expected in Clarence Strait due to the front. Overall, the weather pattern continuing into the work week looks fairly active.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PUBLIC: None. MARINE: Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-643-662-663.